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Archive for September, 2007

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Montreal Protocol shows how its done

Thursday, September 27th, 2007

Thanks for Celsias for this post on the updating of the Montreal Protocol. It seems obvious that this successful treaty should be the starting point for any treaty on greenhouse gases but many of the lessons derived from those intense negotiations haven’t fully be absorbed into the Kyoto process.

It’s not too late to have another look. Many Kyoto advocates have told me there is too much time and money invested in it to change tack now. Well that’s not good enough. If Kyoto is not going to work then it should be set aside. It doesn’t mean a step back but a step forward.

So i’m dusting off my proposal based around Montreal. I think it’s time to realise that major reductions can only come from the supply side.

See Climate Control and also have a look at Oliver Tickell’s proposal Kyoto 2.

Tags: climate change, coal, energy, environment, fossil fuels, global warming, greenhouse gas emissions, iea, kyoto protocol, montreal protocol, oil, opec, ozone depletion, policy ideas | No Comments »

Fed Cuts, Markets Soar, Panic over. Not.

Wednesday, September 19th, 2007

So the Fed arrived late at the party with a scything 50bp cut all round. But they left a cloud of uncertainty to block out the ray of sunshine.

Bernanke is not known for his pandering to the markets and inflation is still mentioned as a concern. So this move is part of the restoration of confidence in the US economy and global monetary system. The G7 central bankers and finance ministers will have been wired into each other this past month and since the Northern Rock meltdown probably on 24 hour call.

They all depend on each other now.

How the Asian central banks must be laughing given the dressing down they received during the 1998 crisis and how the G7 bankers and IMF threw the financial risk playbook at them.

So where does all this leave us. Well pretty much in the same place except we know that G7 will underwrite the financial system. This is good for big guys and bad for small ones (or foreigners!). Small guys can fail and be picked up for a song by the big fellas……nice bit of wealth transfer (anyone remember Long Term Capital or Barings?).

But fundamentally there is still pain to come. The fact that asset prices have been inflated way beyond realistic levels means at some point they must retreat and money must be destroyed as the money supply contracts.

No amount of paper shuffling can change that. Pumping out more money will help in the short term to keep institutions from falling over and the system functioning but it cannot prevent the inevitable.

The best we can hope for is a gentle downturn in asset prices. And of course lessons will be learnt….just like in 1794 and every 18 years since :-)

Tags: bank of england, credit crunch, debt, federal reserve, financial crisis, G7, inflation, interest, markets, money, money supply | 2 Comments »

Why it is necessary to have confidence in the banking system

Tuesday, September 18th, 2007

The recent Bank of England action is completely necessary though wrong in terms of moral hazard. In order to understand why this is the case i exhort you to read John Tomlinson’s paper which is in the research section or here. In his paper  he explains how a bank works in terms of taking in deposits and lending out money. He dissects carefully the balance sheet of Barclays Bank and shows how solvency is merely a trick of the imagination.

Of course readers of this blog will already know that money is merely a ficition, one with a deep and dark history. As Trevor commented in the previous post, the general public relies on he integrity of the system and the honesty of those who operate it.

Can we have confidence in those people? I think not. Not because they are dishonest  but because they refuse to acknowledge a system that is unstabl, inequitable and ultimately inefficient.

Please read and ask questions, comment, spread the word and ponder.  What does your money mean? Do you really have any savings, wealth or assets? Don’t rely on the system to support you. It has failed regularly since the Bank of England was first formed and wil l continue to do so until some serious surgery has been performed.

Tags: bank of england, banking, central banks, confidence, credit, credit crunch, debt, economics, federal reserve, finance companies, financial crisis, interest free banking, intervention, markets, money, money reform, money supply, mortgage, northern rock | No Comments »

Astonishing news: Bank of England changes the rules

Monday, September 17th, 2007

I just heard this news an hour ago and frankly was astounded. The Bank of England will ,if necessary, guarantee all deposits held with Northern Rock. This a major change to the current depositors insurance scheme.

Wow! In a stroke they have just removed any risk from the banking system. They have in effect nationalised Northern Rock without actually doing so.

Actually this is a good thing since it further exposes the myth behind our banking system. Mind you they didn’t rush to bail out the depositors of BCCI  when that failed.

So where to from here? Well that’s anyones guess but this wont finish here even with the  blank cheque provided the the Old Lady.

Max Hastings writes a lovely piece here. Finally as the party comes to an end and the hangover kicks in, will there be some reason?

I hope so. It is a great opportunity to look closely at the money system we currently have. Do not look to our central bankers to provide the lead or even our politicians. We the people will have to provide ideas, answers and solutions on how to proceed. The monetary reform movement has been growing by the day and now it is time to stand up and be heard.

Tags: bank of england, banking, central banks, credit, credit crunch, debt, economics, federal reserve, finance companies, financial crisis, interest free banking, intervention, markets, money, money reform, money supply, mortgage, northern rock, politics | 7 Comments »

Panic on the Streets: Banking system under stress

Saturday, September 15th, 2007

I’m in Europe for a month, making my first trip back since heading to live in NZ nearly 6 years ago. Currently i’m having a lovely time in Southern Spain in a pretty little village called Benahavis.

Watching the UK news is so different: small soundbites, nothing too deep and its making me dizzy. But not as dizzy as those pictures of people queuing up at their local Northern Rock to get all their money out.

They seem so calm about it without quite realising the ramifications of their actions. A run on a major bank in the UK? Who would have thought it could happen in the modern well regulated era.

We have seen finance companies in NZ topple over like dominoes but the general public has taken the view that they were accidents waiting to happen and that people should have taken more care in what they were investing in. But a major financial institution would be a different story.

For money reformers the recent credit crisis was inevitable, a product of the incessant growth in the global money supply. How it will play out is anyone’s guess but there has never been a better time to expose the weakness and corruption at the heart of our money systems.

In the meantime people should check to make sure they do not have to much exposure to any single financial entity. What is amazing to me is how the stock markets have proved so resilient. There is lots of talk about the strength of the underlying economy but the effects of these recent months will take a long time to feed through.

I have a feeling this story has a long way to go.

Tags: bank of england, banking, central banks, credit, credit crunch, debt, federal reserve, finance companies, financial crisis, interest free banking, investing, money, money reform, money supply, mortgage, reserve bank of australia, reserve bank of new zealand | No Comments »

Kiva: Spreading Money Around

Friday, September 14th, 2007

Kiva has been a remarkable success story and one which could really change the way we spread our hard earned around. Charity has always been a core value for humanity as a way of expressing gratitude for what we have and compassion for those who don’t.

But Kiva is not a charity it is a lending organisation with a difference: they don’t charge interest on their loans. So in effect you are donating money but you get it back!

This changes the dynamic from charity to help.  I love this  approach. I made a deposit of $1000 about 6 months ago and lent money to 15 different people all over the world and so far 2 loans have fully repaid whilst the total amount lent is $1075 and repaid $595 (you only get fully repaid when whole loan is paid up).

What is exciting is helping out so many people but as help rather than charity. There is no interest, which as you know from previous posts is the cause of all human suffering.

I am also keen to see how far that $1000 can go because as soon as loans are fully repaid you can lend out again.

Try it out….its a great experience.

Tags: credit, debt, gratitude, helping, interest free banking, kiva, microfinance, money, p2p | No Comments »

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    I’m a Londoner who moved to Christchurch, New Zealand in 2002. After studying economics and finance at Manchester University and a couple of years of backpacking, I ended up working in the financial markets in London. I traded the global financial markets on behalf of investment banks for 11 years. I write about the intersection of economic, social and environmental issues . My prime interest is in designing better systems to create a better world. I welcome comments and input.

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