Hedge Funds and Global Liquidity

Oh dear it seems as if Bear Stearns may be in a little trouble as it coughs up $3.2bln to support one of its hedge funds exposed to the US subprime market.

This is not good news at all but the market has been through this before with the Long Term Capital meltdown in 1998 and of course the 1995 collapse of Barings Bank by Nick Leeson. So it won’t be in complete panic but this is a big move to Bear Stearns and perhaps just a taste of what can go wrong when the music stops.

Hedge funds are heavily leveraged and so when a big move goes against them the losses can be astronomical. In theory risk models are supposed to flash warning lights at set points but the reality is that these models are not foolproof (after all we designed them) and traders can often disguise bad positions. And from my experience all risk is underpriced since it is based on average volatility and not the heavy meltdowns that come with increasing regularity.

The last 10-15 years has seen a huge amount of money created by the worlds’ banks and much of that finds its way back into the financial markets to be invested or used as speculative margin. The numbers are so huge that the Fed in the US has decided it would rather not publish money supply numbers anymore.

So when the market goes into reverse it can cause major losses which have knock on effects around the whole system.  It will be interesting to see how this situation pans out but at some point there will be a serious contraction unless new demand can be conjured up.

RBNZ: Have They Lost the Plot?

There has been a lot of hand wringing over the recent Reserve Bank’s intervention in the currency market. So what’s the story here?

Well the RB has a clear mandate to keep inflation, as measured by the CPI, between 1-3% on an annual basis. According to them they also say that,

“The Bank is required to ensure that, throughout the economy, money works as well as possible as a mechanism for making transactions, storing value, and keeping account.”

So let’s say they are also responsible for price stability in a general sense i.e. no serious asset bubbles or major deflationary shocks.

So how are they doing?

Since 1998 the CPI has risen 20.7% to December 2006. So an average of 2.5% per annum which is within the prescribed band.

But the key worry, or so they keep repeating, has been the housing market which in the same period has risen 143%.

So what have they done about it?

From Mar 04 to Dec 06 they raised interest rates by 2%, from 5.25% to 7.25%. That doesn’t sound like a great deal by historical standards and clearly has not had any impact.

From Mar 04 to Mar 05 rates went up 1.5% as inflation took off towards 3%. However, they stopped when they should have kept going. When CPI hit 3.4% and stayed above, the bank should have got really serious and jacked rates up very quickly.

They didn’t. CPI was above 3% from Sep 2005 to Sep 2006 and they moved only 50bp. This was their big mistake. With house prices on the march as well they should have had rates up to 8% by June 06. They are a year behind the curve and that could cause some major problems.

Alan Bollard has been soft in his approach and this may well stem from the false comfort that low global rates has brought. The great inflation crush of the late 1990s has seen global rates fall into ranges not seen for many a year. Central bankers have been playing in a very small range and have been lulled into a false sense of security.

All around us we witness the asset price bubble caused by cheap global credit. The Japanese are still at it pumping out cheap yen that no one really wants. This is a major disaster waiting to happen. We’ve seen it before when USD/JPY fell to 79.65 back in 1995 on the back of US trade concerns and Asian Central banks dumping their US$. For now the flow out of the yen and into the kiwi continues with a rise of over 15% in the last 6 months.

Yesterday Winston Peters called for an amendment to the Reserve Bank Act asking that the Reserve Bank take a more rounded approach to managing monetary policy. I have to agree with him that a major review is needed and that simply using the OCR to control the economy is not working.

Submissions for the inquiry into a future monetary policy framework close on 19th July. I will post my submission up here in due course. It’s a great opportunity to throw open the arcane nature of our monetary system and make proposals that may lead to a more productive and stable economic system.

The Nature of Money

In a previous post Does Money Grow on Trees? I looked at how money comes into existence, but in a broad sense of the word.

In his paper, The Nature of Money, John Kutyn examines in detail what money is starting from the late 16th century. He explores the development of what we know as bank notes from their early days as accommodation bills and the establishment of the Bank of England as a way of funding a war against France.

He follows the development of money and banking primarily through the legal process andlooks at numerous cases in law of challenges to the meaning of money and the transactions it is used for.

He challenges the banking system to show that it is not acting fraudulently in law when it uses deposits as money and actually creates money via new loans. Of course only a Reserve Bank can create money or so the law states. So is true? Well i suggest you read his paper and draw your own conclusions but he makes a compelling case.

Not content with that he then moves on to looking at the economic impacts of the current system which has a built in imperative for growth resulting in continued boom bust cycles. He argues that this is down to the interest burden and that debt free money is the only way a stable economy can be achieved.

As we approach yet another global bust and possible depression it is worth relfecting on the themes in this paper.

Money doesn’t grow on trees or so they say

They also say that money makes the world go round…well metaphorically it does. It oils the wheels of commerce and enables us to transact with each other and exchange our goods and services.

But how does money actually grow? There always seems to be more of it around. Who creates it?

You probably assume your local central bank does because only they can print notes and coins. That much is true but that’s only a bit of the story. Currently only 2-3% of the total money supply is created in the form of notes and coins that we keep in our wallets and purses.

The rest? Well as JK Galbriath noted the way in which most money is created is “so simple that the mind is repelled”. The private banking system simply create the balance of new money by issuing new loans.

That’s it. For those of you who thought banks lent out money you have deposited with them i’m sorry to inform you that this is not the case.

If you deposit $1000 in the bank, they now have the ability to lend out (and in the process create new money) up to $10000. Of course they charge interest on that loan which is where they make their huge profits from.

I’ll give you an example:

In New Zealand the money supply has increased 101% in the last 8 years. So the total money stock has more than doubled in 8 years!! In that time house prices have risen 143%.

But the official measure of inflation has only risen 20%. Hello…..what is going on here? Yes it is a complete mess.

It is not the central bank or government printing money and causing huge (but unmeasured inflation). It’s the private banks who are doing it! The ones who scream and shout if governments ever think about reclaiming their right to issue money interest free on behalf of their citizens.

It is one of the greatest swindles of in history.

It requires that people sit up, take notice and look hard at what is happening around them. In the US especially the system is starting to creak…..look at the housing market and the lenders that operate in it.

Please see the following sites for more information. Once you learn about this life will never be the same

US: www.monetary.org

UK: www.monetaryreformparty.org.uk

Can: www.comer.org

Aus: www.peoplesbankparty.org

As my old history teacher said read, learn and inwardly digest.